In this video, I am going to discuss what Indicators I use to determine when to buy or sell Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Predicting which direction the price of crypto will move is not easy. This is why indicators should be utilized to help traders predict price movements more accurately and give them a clearer picture as to what action buyers and sellers are likely to take next.

Trading or investing requires a clear understanding of the coin or stock and its underlying value. That can easily be done by using technical indicators. For those new to the world of crypto, here are some of the best technical indicators that you can use to help time this bitcoin bull market.

Friendly reminder that even if you do not hold bitcoin but hold alt coins, these indicators are still important, as the crypto market is primarily dictated by bitcoin.

 

We are heading into the last three months of the last year of the bitcoin bull market now this is when explosive gains happen in a matter of a few months and I’m talking about hundreds and hundreds of percents and for all coins I’m talking about over 500 at least in the last cycle and I’ve been through two cycles now I actually bought bitcoin back in 2013 sold it in 14 and then in 17 I started to rebuy heavily and I didn’t make as much money as I should have because I was making emotional decisions on what I felt I should do instead of making objective decisions on actual data now I’m gonna show you some software’s and some charts that are free to use that anyone can use so that you can make objective decisions during this bull market because I’m telling you it is extremely extremely emotional when you’re going through and seeing your portfolio quadruple or 5x 6x in a matter of a few weeks and then ultimately come down you know and at least with bitcoin.

We came down 84 after the cycle in 2017 into 2018 and then if you look at all coins they came down 92 almost 93 in about 12 months after the the cycle top in the beginning of January of 18. so there is an extreme amount of emotion that is provoked by this if you’re not making decisions objectively and if you make decisions based on emotion with money.

I’m telling you you’re going to lose so I’m going to show you some pieces of software that are actually free for you to use to make decisions in order to time the market effectively if you do want to realize some gains now there’s a lot of people that say hey just buy crypto hold on to it never sell it I think that you know that’s that’s okay for part of your crypto portfolio but to sit here and watch your portfolio have thousands of percent gains in a matter of like 12 months and then historically at least it’s gone down by over 80 percent.

I mean that’s a ton of volatility and what volatility really is is opportunity so I truly believe that a portion of your portfolio at least should be locking in gains I mean if you have hundreds if not thousands of percent gains it is very very greedy to not lock in profit all right so like you know there are some bitcoin in my portfolio that I will never sell but honestly the majority of my portfolio over half of my portfolio I will be selling based on data and based on metrics which I’m going to show you right here right now.

Now let’s look at an actual chart in bitcoin so first of all let’s just look at market cycles and I want to go over this one first so if you go to look into bitcoin.com okay this is free all these charts are free so if you literally go to this site you literally just click on the middle thing that says bitcoin charts and then you’ll look at the first one which I just highlighted on the left here which is the two year moving average okay.

Now this is what I’m talking about with this explosive growth we’ve been on something called the having cycle where every four years bitcoin cuts the supply in half and then about a year to a year and a half after the the having actually occurs we see just explosive growth in bitcoin and then ultimately in cryptocurrency because bitcoin has a large dominance over the market now here is one tool that you can actually use what are we even looking at we’re looking at a two-year moving average multiplier and what this red line is is the two-year moving average multiplied by five okay.

So we can actually look at this chart and say hey what a moving average is is just the average of the price of bitcoin over a two-year period so over the last two years it takes the average of bitcoin and it continually adjusts it as the price is live right so what we want to look at is okay what is price done we can see in the blue in this blue line right here price has come above the two year moving average multiplied by five which again is is this red section here when it comes above this red section that historically has been a great time to sell.

I mean look we had a nice movement in 13 where we had a and then we had like an 80 correction six months and then an explosive move above the two-year map moving average multiplied by five again here in 2017 again we came above here and you’ve had you really I know this looks like a short like a short amount of time here this is actually a fair amount of time when it comes over so from November 30th all the way to about January 15th you had in order to sell so this is a a decent signal to look at especially right when it peaks its head above you have about a month to really lock in some really really nice gains and you can see we did not even head above this in 2021.

So we did not even have a fake out and this actual chart and indicator has proved correct historically when we’ve had you know explosive growth and then at least a 60 correction or more this has been absolutely on point now this is another thing I want to show you is now you can see obviously this red section when it so when it pokes his head above that red line it’s usually a pretty good time to sell now what about this green section here now when we actually go below so head into a bear market this historically has been a great time to get back into bitcoin so maybe a portion of your portfolio you actually sell when we head into the red section and then when we start to head into the green section which is just the two year moving average all right.

There’s no multiplier on this it’s just the two year moving average of bitcoin which you can also chart on trading view if you would like but when we come below in this green section historically this has been a wonderful time to rebuy bitcoins maybe you look at this chart and by the way if you want to pay for this you can access indicator alerts on here I believe you have to pay for it but again all this is free so you can watch this actually play out in real time this year the second one which I really like if you just scroll down here to on chain charts this is just data that is pulled from bitcoin’s blockchain.

So the really cool thing about blockchain technology is it’s just an open accounting book and an open ledger that records transactions and anyone can see these transactions in real time and this software just pulls the data and puts it into a chart that’s visually appealing so we can actually make objective decisions and this is called the mvrv z score and if you scroll down right here I want to help you understand what it is it’s just a blockchain analysis that helps identify periods where bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its fair value because what it’s actually doing is taking the actual market value which is the current price of bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation which is just really the market cap of bitcoin and then it takes the realized value which is actually the value of each bitcoin when it was last moved.

So the last time it was moved from one wallet to another wallet it’ll actually add all those up take the average of it and then it’ll multiply it by the total number of coins in circulation so that’s called the realized value and what it does is it strips out the short-term market sentiment to have within the market value metric and then the z-score which is the red line is a standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes of the data between market value and realized value so what it’s really just showing you is when there’s a lot of unrealized profit in the market is what it’s showing you the z-score will explode and I’ll show you exactly why but I love this one because if you look here it has been able to pick the market high of each cycle to within two weeks.

So it’s literally time the top of the market within two weeks for each cycle so if you scroll up here we had every single time that we’ve had a like cycle top since 13, 14, 17 and then we did not have a fake out here in 2021 we’ve had the z score explode above this red indicator right here so anytime the z score is coming above about seven which you can set an indicator on here if you would like especially eight that’s been a cycle top.

It’s been a very good time to sell I would honestly recommend if you’re gonna set an indicator for this it’s set a little bit lower closer to the z score being right around a seven or a seven point six just to make sure that you actually have a little bit of time to sell the asset instead of trying to time it perfectly at the top like set the indicator for right around a 7 or 7.2 and then you’ll be able to at least have a little bit of time to to sell the asset okay so this is another one again you can use the access indicator alerts right down here.

I believe I think it costs money if you would like to use that the third indicator I really like is also more on chain data now this is called the R hoddle ratio and what this just really shows you is if you look below this title right here it’s the realize hodl ratio which if you don’t know what huddle stands for it stands for hold on for dear life so it’s just people that are holding on to bitcoin and realize means that when it’s the price of that bitcoin when it was last moved it’s technically realizing profit because we can’t tell exactly if someone’s sending it to someone else or if someone’s buying something with the bitcoin so they will take the realized price of that bitcoin and what they’re doing is taking the r-hottle ratio of the one week divided by the r-hottle ratio of the one a year to two-year and then multiplying it by the total market age and what it really tells you again is just when a lot of coins are being moved very very quickly.

So it’ll say when the one week value is significantly higher than the one to two year it is a signal that the market is becoming overheated so this has historically been a very very good time to sell and if you look down here unlike other on-chain indicators our hotel ratio does not get a false signal of a cycle high in April of 2013 this gives a unique advantage over other on-chain metrics so you can see in 2013 when we did have that like fake out but we still had like about an 80 retracement and then and then a blow off top in in 2014 it did not get faked out during that time period and this is one of the only on-chain metrics that has not been faked out during that time period and if you look in 2017 again it came above the red at the very top of the cycle and it’s timed it.

I believe within a few days I think they say it down here the market top within a few days accuracy so historically this has been a very very accurate time to start realizing profit within bitcoin and we didn’t obviously in 2021 we did not see it even come close to this red zone right here now I’m going to show you one last indicator that is completely free if you go to trading view and you look at the bitcoin price on the two week time frame you can see all the way back to 2011 we actually had a top here and then in 2013-14 we had a top here.

So when the RSI comes over 93 historically that has been a great time to sell you can see the RSI was over 93 here it was over 93 on all those I just showed you and then in in 2021 we did not come over a 93 on the RSI when you’re looking at it on a two-week candle time frame okay hope you got value from this video and I really really wish you the best during this bull market I’m telling you the more that you can make decisions based on objective numbers the better you’re going to do so use these charts use data use indicators to make your decision on when you want to take profits and I hope to see you here in this next video

Published On: October 20, 2021 / Categories: How Tos / Tags: , , , , /