In this video, I talk about the current state of the crypto market, the potential next moves and what you can consider doing to ensure you are set up to succeed regardless of what happens next.

 

We are at an absolute crucial time for bitcoin cryptocurrency in global macro markets and in this video I’m going to share with you the two potential scenarios are going to play out what I believe the probability of those things playing out is and how I am going to win either way no matter which scenario plays out and before we jump into this video if you do admire the sunset behind me make sure to tickle the like button down below this video okay.

So where are we at right now bitcoin’s at 41,600 I’m sure you’ve heard and we’re at a very very crucial point which is right at the 40 000 range which is right at previous resistance that we had right here right that flipped into resistance again and now it is flipped into support at 40k and now we are hitting the support once again okay and then on more of a macro trend line you can see we’re creating this new trend and I think if we do break this if we do cleanly close a daily candle below 40k into 39.38 whatever it is if we do close daily below 40k I think we are very likely in for a 30k opportunity which again it’s not the reason why I said it’s an opportunity is for multiple reasons.

I will accumulate very very heavily at 30k if we do actually come down to that level I’d actually be very very excited for that to happen now a few things that have obviously happened over the last week is the fed is saying hey we’re most likely to raise rates three I believe they said three to four times this year in 2022 and what that means is debt becomes more expensive so if you understand overall markets pretty much everything is impacted by credit markets so when interest rates get raised that means that debt is more expensive.

So people borrow less money and subsequently they spend less money which is overall bad for the growth of the economy which typically means that the stock market sells off and since crypto is a highly speculative asset class and it’s so new there’s only two trillion dollars in it right now which is absolutely minuscule if you saw my last video how small it is it’s ridiculous compared to other markets.

It will likely be sold off very very hard if the stock market sells off so I do believe in the shorter term if the stock market continues to sell off I think we do see a very red period for cryptocurrency which I think is going to be potentially the greatest opportunity that we ever see all things considered when you consider the macro economy the shifts everything being digitized how blockchain technology is starting to revolutionize industries how public companies how you know universities like Yale Harvard Brown are now putting it in their endowments.

How you know the greatest hedge fund managers of all time are now saying they’re buying bitcoin when you consider the the macro shift that is happening that is I think that’s going to be the biggest opportunity that we may ever see and I do think the the potential of that happening this year is somewhat high so in the shorter term it is looking more bearish than bullish but I actually want to show you another scenario of what I think can play out but I also want to show you this before we jump into this if we do break 40k like I mentioned.

I think 30k is a nice region I don’t think there’s that much further that we could fall we’ve never into a cycle actually even come close to the previous high of the previous cycle so you you probably know if you study crypto at all the previous high was 20k I don’t think we ever see 20k again for bitcoin at least it’s never happened in previous cycles I don’t think that we see that happen again after we’ve broken the previous all-time high we’ve never come down and touched that that high again which we obviously broke that all the way back in November 9th of 2020.

So I honestly don’t if we sell off I don’t think we have that much lower to go which is good and bad depending on where your portfolio is at another crazy thing is and honestly even more than your portfolio where your mindset is at which we’re about to talk about a lot here and how that can impact your decision on what you potentially do with your own portfolio.

I’ll let you know what I’m doing but this has been super super interesting the 10-year yield on US government bonds has been highly correlated to bitcoin both on the up and the downside you’ve seen the stock market we’ve been highly correlated on the downside not always the upside but with this with a 10-year yield we’ve been very very closely correlated this orange line is bitcoin okay and the 10-year yield is this regular candles with the the green and the red here and you’ve seen that as the 10-year yield has gone up.

Bitcoin’s gone up as it gone down bitcoin’s gone down and once again as it pumped again it went up and now the yield is going up and bitcoin is going down so are we decoupling or is this a great opportunity to buy bitcoin well I think that this potentially gives you a lot better of a view and actually before we jump into that I want to show you this which is the previous top that we had earlier in 2021 or in the mid of 2021 in May.

We had a really big sell-off so a huge down wick that took us to a local low which was actually at our previous support then we had a consolidation where we actually had three or actually four pumps higher we had one here one here one here and then we went higher then we had this fake out of a trend so we’re actually consolidating into this trend then we had a fake push higher and then we had a lower low which created the head.

So this is an inverse head and shoulders we had the shoulder here we had the head here then we had consolidation and then we saw a sell-off once again we had the right shoulder so that was inverse head and shoulders and then we headed higher we went 130 upwards and you guys saw my previous video all these buy signals are now flashing now and they there’s no there’s that’s just the facts that they’re still flashing and this actually happened well before we pumped right.

We saw the green line saw the first green dot we saw the two green dots we actually broke this downtrend in here and we just did the same thing which you probably saw in that last video I’m not going to go in depth on that because we’ve already covered that but we’re starting to see the same thing we had a big sell-off event, we created the shoulder, we had consolidation we had the fake pump, we then went lower created the head now the question is are we going to consolidate form the right hand shoulder and continue higher.

I think the probability of this playing out like I told you I was going to let you know I think this is about a 60 chance now if we were just focused on cryptocurrency I would say this is probably more of like a 70-80 percent chance that we start to continue higher and we see new all-time highs again in a shorter to mid-term period but because of the x-factor of what’s going on with the macro economy and the stock market there’s a ton of uncertainty in the market.

I think that that probability starts to diminish closer to a 60 probability that we do continue higher now and that is that based on you know a bunch of data no it’s based on my opinion of what i think could potentially play out the thing that I don’t like a lot about other technical analysis especially on YouTube.

They’re just like showing you 11 lines and 14 moving averages and 17 different you know RSIS on different time frames where they’re like oh look at this and that and this could happen and that it could go up or it could go down well no kidding so what I like to tell you is I like to show you the data and then and then let you know my opinion unless you know what I’m doing just so that you have some sense of somewhat of a direction and that you could implement obviously I’m not a financial advisor.

I can’t tell you what you should do but I like to give you all the data so that you can say oh this this makes sense this doesn’t make sense you know I have this much of a risk tolerance this is how my portfolio is allocated and then this is what I’ll do for myself that’s what I’m looking to give you not just like oh look this this has tested the 169 day moving average four times you know last cycle so I do think that potentially and also what is happening too is we are actually at a bigger head and shoulders pattern right now.

We had a really big shoulder here big head here and then we’re forming we just formed another shoulder right here and now we’ve broken to our previous support zone so we’re at a very very crucial time I think potentially it’s about a 60 chance we continue higher we consolidate and we continue higher and a 40 chance we break this and we I think it’s very likely that we had the 30k which I think is going to be a really really great opportunity to potentially accumulate.

Now if you’re in some of our private groups honestly if you have over 10 20k you you should re highly consider joining our IC it’s called inner circle it’s a couple hundred a month it’s very inexpensive for the amount of value you’re getting but we’ve started to hit all of our by some of our buy limits that we have set in our shorter term portfolio so like what we do is we separate our portfolio and we look for certain zones that we can accumulate depending on which portion of our portfolio that we’re talking about and I’ll show you just very quickly kind of how we separate those things but I think you know what’s also important to understand is pretty much none of the macro.

I actually did want to show you a few on chain stuff none of the on-chain things that have flashed at the cycle tops of all the cycle tops that we’ve ever had in the history of bitcoin have not flashed like the vast like 80 to 90 percent of them have not flashed a cycle top so when you consider that I think it’s highly likely that we are actually doing this where the there’s no denying that the peaks are extending you guys have heard me talk about that previously but they’re actually extending by 574 days if you look we had 329 days of the first cycle peak 903 days, 1477 days and if that happened again we this was like a very old pitch deck that we had in one of our crypto hedge funds.

This was like from like two years ago so this isn’t an updated chart because we’re much higher closer to the we’re so at the end of this it would be July 30th of 2023 and obviously we’re in the first month of 2022. so potentially if this happened again this is another whole year and a half that we could see some Pumpity Dumpities some sideways action and then potentially a high that based on previous growth would put us around like 170-580k per bitcoin.

So I think that’s important to understand and then you know all of the alerts which we talk about in our private groups and things but like the z score the r HODL ratio the Puel multiple you know certain moving averages the RSI and the two-week pretty much every almost every cycle top indicator is not flashing so that’s why I feel like we are just extending this is going to be a very interesting cycle and now I’m going to let you know why that’s a good and a bad thing depending on what type of mindset you have so I hope you get some macro value you get some micro value from me too so you can kind of have an idea what to do with shorter term longer term.

This is how we allocate in our portfolio so I don’t I share some of my positions but if you’re a part of of our private communities I share every single position that I take and how it fits into my overall portfolio and then when I’m getting in and out of positions but this is how I overall allocate my personal portfolio right now in our funds we use multiple different strategies but I like it’s just as a hobby of mine it is I like to play with some of my personal money as well I have over 50 percent of my crypto exposure in my funds because I really believe in what we do but also in my personal accounts this is how I allocate my allocation is I do 50 longer term.

I do what this is the 25 in the red here I call it cycle swing it’s more of like a mid-term allocation in my portfolio where I’m playing that out through a whole cycle so I’ll accumulate during a cycle we have exact exit targets set for these positions and whenever that we are hitting those alerts at the end of the cycle that’s when I’m starting to sell that 25 of my portfolio the longer term stuff.

I am never selling I would just continue to huddle and if I ever need capital from that I can just take loans and I’ll just refinance every two to four years on the loan because historically bitcoin’s gone up 200 a year on average and actually you may have to never pay back the loan because you can just continually refinance it if you ever wanted to but I probably won’t even need to even take loans on that the shorter term stuff this is where we’re actually playing so on like to let you know.

I started to sell my higher risk assets in my personal portfolio to hedge against this potential downside so if we do have a big sell-off and we do break a very critical point which is where exactly we’re at if we do break that we’re likely to see a really decent sell-off so let’s see what bitcoin would do bitcoin would do another you know if we went down to 30, 30k it come down like another 27, 28 now if you’re holding lower cap all coins which is when I say lower cap.

I’m talking about coins that are outside of the top you know really probably this is even still pretty high when I say lower cap I’ll let you know I’m really talking about less than 250 million so if you’re holding the smaller cap coins that you hold the more volatile they’re going to be and the less likely they’re actually going to make it out of a bear market so if you want to hedge risk and a portion of your portfolio you start to de-risk by selling your smaller cap coins and you can HODL more of your larger cap coins in order to still have exposure to crypto but you’re holding assets that are likely to make it out of a bear market and they’re not going to go down as much because there’s more conviction and there’s more capital in them likely because they’re better projects so that’s something that I just did.

I just sold some of my lower cap coins in my shorter term allocation in my portfolio which I separate these on different exchanges and in cold wallets and things like that and yeah that’s how I just recently de-risked to potentially avoid this movement which again this could be 28 in bitcoin but this could be a 70-80 decrease in some of the crap coins that you’re holding that you probably have too much exposure to anyways for me that’s not the entire 25 by the way.

I have like phantom and soul and harmony and positions like that in my shorter term that I those are swing trades that I make every two to three weeks but I also have my higher risk stuff in the shorter term as well that I just recently dumped everything under a 200 million market cap except for a few DAO’s which I got some videos coming because a lot of things have changed on those recently and then yeah another five percent in leverage.

So anyways that’s kind of how I allocate my stuff and what I talk about like in our communities and things but overall I think it’s smart to understand like typically there’s a lot of fear in the market right now and typically when we haven’t seen those alerts flash for the top of the market cycle and we’ve been at a lot of fear typically that’s actually a really good time to accumulate so depending on which type of investor you are it’s actually a really if you’re a longer term investor and you just have you’re more of a passive investor, you’re more of this blue right here okay.

You do this more you don’t really play shorter term stuff this is actually a great time to accumulate like I’m Alex I’m adding to my longer term positions right now and some of our longer term funds we put a lot of capital to work over the past five days but if you’re more of a shorter term guy you feel like man.

I’ve put too much money in crypto and I feel anxious you know maybe you consider de-risking a little bit but again if you’re more of a longer-term investor now is not a bad time to start dollar cost averaging and buying the dip if you are more of a shorter term investor you want to pull your money out at the end of the cycle then I don’t know that this is a really good time to add to your positions at least for me id risk my shorter term stuff.

I’m adding to my longer term stuff and I hold better better long term assets in my longer term stuff so I’m not even worried about heading into a bear market with that because I’m not even selling them and I believe in them long term the shorter term stuff I’m okay with higher risk because I potentially want to have a higher gain right so depending on who you are if you’re a longer term investor you understand the macro thesis of where likely crypto and blockchain is heading now is a pretty good time it’s an exciting time.

We’re actually oversold on the RSI and bitcoin is at a previous supportive resistance zone which has been very very significant and I don’t think there’s too much more downside that could potentially come I think there’s a lot more upside over a longer period of time shorter term we’re definitely in a downtrend and it could potentially be a thing where you want to de-risk a little bit so I think you really got to ask yourself which person am I.

Am I the shorter term, am I in the longer term, am I a mix of both have I considered separating my portfolios like this do I even understand what’s going on if you want a little bit more clarity again there’s some links in the description of this video to potentially join us if not keep getting value for my free content and hope you’re doing super well and if you got value from this video I would appreciate you hitting the like button let me know your thoughts in the comments section below hope you have a really really great weekend all right thank you so much and hope to see you on this next video.

Published On: January 9, 2022 / Categories: How Tos / Tags: , , , , /