In this video, I give you my honest opinion of where I think bitcoin is heading this year based on objective data.

Where do you believe #bitcoin and #crypto is heading?

 

Bitcoin has only done a 5.7 gain thus far through the first 15 days of November but meanwhile back in 2017 it did a 54 gain in November so what the heck is going on are we actually at a top right now we’re going to have more bearish momentum or are we still looking like we’re going to rock it over 100k well in this video I’m going to share with you exactly my opinion on that and where I believe we are going based on the data and objective reasoning that we have from the history of bitcoin so we can make some type of a logical decision because most people make emotional decisions and that’s why most people lose with their investments.

The more you can remove emotion and make more decisions based on data and objective reasoning the better you are going to do with your investment so my goal is just to bring you data so that you can make an intelligent decision for yourself and if you get value from this video I would greatly appreciate you hitting the like button if you get consistent value for my channel why not hit subscribe.

We are pushing to get over 25,000 subscribers that’s my goal for a few months now and we greatly appreciate any support but to be honest I don’t like to ask for things right I want to deserve what I want so if you don’t think I deserve over 25k subs do not hit subscribe all right I want to deserve what I actually want so anyways bitcoin did a 54 gain what is actually going on let’s look at actually the first you know 12 days of November was actually a really terrible time for bitcoin.

We had about a 13-14 percent decrease if you could grab it from the bottom of the wick it was over 15 drop in the first 12 days of November and then we rocketed to over 54 gain for November and then after that from if we’re looking out for the first of November all the way to about December 16th that is when we saw a top which is right around a 200 increase in literally a month and a half for bitcoin but the thing that people don’t realize and let’s look at actually what that would be if we did have a 200 increase for the start of November that would have taken us from right about here about 180k per bitcoin which you guys know that is where I believe bitcoin is going because from peak to peak.

We saw a 35 x to 2013 or to 2014 excuse me and then from 14 to 17 we saw about a 17x so the growth actually got cut in half from peak to peak and if that happened again we’d be sitting right around about a 9x from the previous peak which was 20k back in 17 so that would push if we had a 9x from the previous peak in 17 to where we’re at now.

It’d put us right around 180k per bitcoin so I would not be surprised if we actually end up at around 180k but we could be heading much higher based on the data and I can’t tell you how many times that I’ve been asked this you know because we also run some some crypto funds that do quite well and people ask us all the time when they’re considering like investing with us or even current investors and then we also run a few groups you know private groups where we coach people on managing their own, their own crypto and people are always asking and comparing the time frames.

I do not care about the dates of the top my expectation for this is the next two to six months but I could care less about throwing out a date what I care about is the actual data so let’s go ahead and look at the data what we’re looking at right now is on-chain metrics which is what I believe is the most important metrics that you can look at because it shows fundamentally what is going on with the supply and the demand of bitcoin and what the smart and dumb money is doing which is what we’re looking at right here which I believe is very very important.

So what has recently actually happened we saw a recent you guys saw my last you know market update on YouTube where I said hey we just had the long-term holders selling their supply you see this little dip right here right in this orange line that’s a long-term holder so people that hold bitcoin for over 155 days actually selling some of their bitcoin and everyone’s kind of really scared I’ve seen some other streams like oh my gosh get out because the long-term holders are selling right.

We saw that you see this little red mark here where the long-term holders are starting to sell it’s I’ll tell you why it’s not a big deal and it’s it’s not a big deal because historically if we look at what long-term holders have done yes they’ve done a great job timing the market right you can see as we came up even this year in 2021 they started to sell around October 24th when bitcoin was at a third at 13,000 right so these people the smart money started to sell and they sold more more and more and more until we reached actually a top of the market and then they started to accumulate more bitcoin and especially when we dropped.

So we actually went from 13k all the way to about 65k which is obviously it’s about a 5x increase from what happened when you actually had long-term holders start to sell so we had a 5x increase earlier this year and back in 2017 as well if we look at when we had the first you know serious move in the long-term holder supply that took us you know from about 11.4 million bitcoin as far as long-term holders to about 11.2 which we saw about a 200k drop as well this year.

We’ll actually go back and I’ll show you it honestly was not a significant movement in the long-term motor supply we went from about I think it was 14 or 15 million yeah I was actually right around 13 500 and we came down to about 13 four so we actually only saw like 100k drop in the amount of supply of bitcoin of long-term holders and if we actually look back in 2017 when this happened that would have put the price at 970 per bitcoin which obviously we then rocketed up to about 20-20 grand so we likely have quite a bit of time left for bitcoin to make a serious move long-term holders are traditionally smart money and they understand the way off between risk and reward and they understand that as the market continues to progress and they’re in more and more profit to start taking more money off the table.

So if we actually look back at bitcoin all the way back this is give you some perspective and this is why it’s really important to actually zoom out if we look in 2017 that metric that I just showed you where we actually started to sell bitcoin that was all the way back on January 5th is when we saw like a significant drop in the long-term holder supply of bitcoin if we went back to January 5th okay.

We would be all the way to give you a visual perspective we would literally be all the way here which again is right around 970 per bitcoin so if you look at this chart we have quite a bit of room to go this is where long-term holders actually started to take profit back in 2017 you can see how long of a time frame we had until we actually reached 20k so I do believe that you know based on the data we likely have about a five you know I think about a three x from where we’re at to give you some idea of where I do think bitcoin is going and again bitcoin matters the price of bitcoin matters because it holds over 40 percent of the dominance of the entire crypto market cap.

Another metric we really like to look at which I actually have not talked about on this channel is the unrealized profit and loss so this is the entity adjusted net unrealized profit of the market so what it actually is is when this number so these you can see these obviously these different colors this is the actual metric right here which is the net unrealized profit and losses entity adjusted to take out you know entities that just send some of the coin back and forth between that entity but in different wallets so it adjusts so that it’s actually looking at you know technically unbiased data because it’s this is different entities actually transacting with each other instead of entities transacting within each other and what we’ve seen at the tops of markets is this net unrealized profit and loss.

So about 75 you can see over here when we come over 75 we start to see blue that’s how they code this metric we headed into the blue which means that over 75 of the market cap of bitcoin is in profit there’s been a huge sell-off after that right so 75 back in 2013 back in 2014 we saw a jump over in 2017 as well and then we have a huge sell-off after that and again we have not seen that at all even this entire year we haven’t even reached over 75 percent even back when we did top earlier this year in 2021 and we’re not even close.

We’re at about a 0.62 so about 62 of the market cap of holders within bitcoin are in profit right now which again over 75 is when it starts to get dangerous and let’s go ahead and look at the smarter money within bitcoin and actually look at by the way unfortunately some of this data is it’s about 10 grand to look at especially the these tier 3 metrics on bitcoin itself and if we look at so you unfortunately cannot see this unless you come to my channel.

That’s why it’s valuable you should hit subscribe so back in and for this is for the same metric net unrealized profit loss but this is for long-term holders okay and long-term holders they actually will wait until it’s a higher percentage where of the total amount of capital that’s in bitcoin for long-term holders when it’s in profit so they actually wait until right around 94 before they start to really hit a top with bitcoin so right when we start to have over 94 of the long-term holders in a net unrealized profit which by the way unrealized just means that you have not realized the profit right.

So you’re holding the coin but you actually have not sold the coin to actually lock in the profit right that’s why it’s unrealized when you sell your position you’ll have a realized capital gain or a capital loss in this case we’re looking at unrealized right so that would mean that if a lot of people were in profit they want to lock it in and smart money loves to lock profit in okay so this is the smart money the long-term holders once it gets over about 94 traditionally that has been a wonderful time to sell bitcoin and again we have not even come close back in you know earlier this year.

We just breached about 90 I believe we’ve reached 90 right around 89 to 90 just above 89 we saw that back earlier this year in about it looks like February of 2021 so we haven’t even come close to the 94 of long-term holders in a unrealized profit and once we get to 94 that is when we’re going to start selling if you want some alerts you should highly recommend joining one of the groups in the description down below because we have alerts set on all these metrics that have historically timed the tops of the markets so that we can notify ourselves and obviously the thousands of people then in our groups that make intelligent decisions based on data with us as well.

So if you got value from this video I greatly appreciate you hitting the like button where do you think that bitcoin is going I do believe hey let’s have some patience guys I mean people get really freaked out by and I’ll tell you why you get freaked out is because you’re literally you’re looking at this you’re literally looking at this right here you’re zoomed in way too close and you’re like oh my gosh we just had a huge red candle what’s what’s gonna happen next everyone’s gonna sell.

Oh this guy on twitter said that the market’s gonna dump don’t make decisions on people on social media and I know that this is a form of social media but I’m showing you the data you want to make the decision on the data and it really helps when you move out and you study previous cycles and previous data over those periods of time right.

The long term holders just started to lock in profit which you saw in my previous YouTube video we could have quite a lot of time until we actually see the top of the market or this could come relatively quicker if this line starts to drop we don’t care until this until this move is over 10 percent the long-term holders are over 10 percent decrease in their long-term holder supply then we start to highly consider locking in profit but until then we are still very bullish and to leave you with one other thing and this is something I really like to look at is as well is to understand even more on a short-term basis we still are having a ton of bitcoin come off of exchanges like bitcoin is not moving onto exchanges right.

Now it’s actually significantly moving off which means that people are holding bitcoin in places where it is ill-liquid right so the ill-liquid supply you can see all this red this means that bitcoin is moving off of exchanges into cold wallets where it cannot be sold and if we actually zoomed out back in 2017 we had much more green I mean look at all this green through this bull market and now we have so much red which is doing this the illiquid supply of bitcoin is skyrocketing.

We are at an all-time high which is obviously a bullish sign if there’s no way to actually you know the majority of the supply of bitcoin is illiquid where it cannot be sold well that that decreases the selling pressure and as demands increasing because countries are adopting bitcoin and entities are public companies are buying bitcoin and mainstream media is buying bitcoin obviously that means an increase in price because it’s primarily supply and demand driven.

So if you got value from this video again I would greatly appreciate you hitting the like button and let me know what you think in the comment section below I’d love to hear your reasoning but make sure to back it by data because again we do not care about emotional opinions we care about the facts the charts and the objective reasoning thanks so much for watching this video I’ll see you here in this next one. 

Published On: November 16, 2021 / Categories: How Tos / Tags: , , , , /