In this video I share with you my outlook on the bitcoin bull market…
It is quite obvious the cycles are lengthening which means the bull market is likely to continue into next year.
Regardless, the entire bull market depends on what the stock market does.
In this video I share with you the dates I am eyeing and why.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is set to have its worst November in bull market history when you compare to 2014 and in 2017 so what does that mean for this bull market are we gonna head into a bear market are we going to continue to have growth into December and into early next year well in this video I’m going to share with you exactly that I’m also going to show you exact targets that I’m looking for and where I would potentially get cautious and then also exit the market I’m also going to share with you the one thing that I think the entire market depends on that not a lot of people are really looking at.
So number one where are we at right now bitcoin is at 58,700. we perfectly have bounced off of this green zone that we have been eyeing for about 14 days now we posted this in some of our private groups right this green zone where we could bounce off of this trend line because if you look at previously what happened back in April right we had a very strong trend line and when we officially broke it in on April 18th.
We had a massive correction we had a 55 percent correction after we broke this trend line so we’re making sure that bitcoin is staying on track with this trendline which it perfectly did it had a perfect bounce off of the trend line from this green buy zone and if we I’ll show you where I would get cautious then also you know potentially get out of the market which is this yellow zone is where I’ll get cautious which would mean that bitcoin would break past our previous resistance which is exactly at 52 seven hundred dollars.
If we break below that’s where I’m gonna start to get cautious now what does cautious mean that means I would start to put some stop losses on some of my all coin positions right I’m gonna hold you know my bitcoin position through the bear market I’ve slowly moved from bitcoin to alts because I understand that all to outperform as we progress through the bear mart or the bull market so what I would do is I would put stop losses on my all coin positions to make sure that if bitcoin heads into this red zone right where we break and break into a new lower low right.
Then we’re officially in a bear market if we do break below this lower low and that’s where I would want to exit out of my positions because I do believe there’s a very high chance that we continue into a bear market if we do break below this region which is at forty thousand six hundred dollars right so those are my action steps based on price and what bitcoin does right.
Everyone always asks okay what what should I do and and at what points in time well this is an exact idea of what I would do and you can’t force things along you know it in front of the market what you need to do is just say if this happens then I would do this right if bitcoin did this I would do this and the reason why we study bitcoin is again because it holds more than 40 of all the money in cryptocurrency in one asset which is bitcoin and you if you study all coins and in the total crypto market cap.
It follows what bitcoin does right regardless of the dominance dropping we still are completely correlated with bitcoin almost every single asset goes down if bitcoin drops almost every asset goes up as bitcoin continues to rise at least the valuable ones do so I want to share with you some really important data that I think will help you have a better idea of when we could potentially head into the peak price for bitcoin.
So me personally I do believe we’re still right on track with this bull market now we are behind in previous months as I mentioned November is set to be the worst November we’ve had in bull market history but what you need to look at is you need to also consider well what is actually happening with the overall structure of the cycles the cycles are actually expanding.
I’m going to show you a few illustrations right now so this is the bitcoin price right over from the cycle low so when we reach the lowest low price of bitcoin okay how long does it take to then reach the next low of the next bear market right and more importantly we’re looking at peak price right now so let’s see right in 20 all the way back right epcot 1 right.
So 2010 to 2011 you can see the high was very quickly after the previous low right then the next one in 2015 where we actually reached a low but we had a peak price in 2014. you can see from the previous low it took much longer right you can see so the days are at the bottom here it took about 720 days from the previous low to get to the peak right then in this orange right which is the last cycle where we had a peak price in 2017 in mid-December of 2017 we had this took about a thousand in 68 days to reach the peak price from the previous bottom and now we are just past that 1068 days where we have not reached the peak yet and based on previous cycles.
You can see that the dates are actually expanding and I’ll show you a few other illustrations as well the bitcoin having cycle right this is the one I actually like much more than the one that we just viewed if you look at the peak price right in epcot 1 which is again right around 20 2011 where we had that peak price that took about 325 days excuse me that took yeah about 325 days then we go look at the next cycle which again was in 2014 that peak price was about 367 days.
So it got longer from this is where bitcoin had its halving cycle right so when it cut its supply in half that’s where we’re starting out down here at the bottom of the graph right so from the halving cycle to the peak was this was cycle one from the having cycle to the second peak we had 370 days from the halving cycle to the peak in 2017 we had 526 days and now we are at the from the having cycle in 2020 to where we’re at now we’ve been at about a 562 days okay.
So will this continue to expand and increase the amount of time between each having cycle well at least it’s looking like it has so if that were to happen again this bull market price right for bitcoin where we’re at right now this would likely expand somewhere probably out to at least you know 660 days we could be even looking into like 750 days depending on how far we go out and I’ll show you another another illustration here in a second to have a even a better prediction and we’ll look at from top to top.
This is something I want to show you we’ve been talking about this and and some of the hedge funds that we run they’re all cryptocurrency related hedge funds and we run these funds and manage capital for other people but when we’re explaining like what we think could potentially happen for our accredited investors.
We show them some illustrations and I’m going to share with you one of them here and if you look this is from the bitcoin’s top right from the top price so down here is the previous top you can see that bitcoin reached its top at the very end of we had 324 days right from top to top again in the next cycle in 2014 we had about 904 days in 2017 we had about 1477 days and thus far for bitcoin we’re at 144-1442 days so if this expanded out again we would likely be sitting somewhere you know around 1,800 to like 2,000 days if this actually does play out right so everyone that’s comparing you know just this November to the November back in 2017 and this November to just the November in 2014.
It’s quite obvious that the cycle peaks are getting longer and I’ll show you I’ll continue to show you these illustrations the bitcoin peak cycle this is what we were just talking about this is what we go over with some of our investors that are considering investing with us you can see from the peak price it took 329 days then from peak to peak it took 903 days then we had about 147 days right and if this were to happen again you can see that the peak has actually increased by 574 more days to reach the next peak price at bitcoin if that were to happen again.
We would reach a peak price on July 30th of 2023 now do I think it’s gonna be that long I personally do not believe it’s going to be into July of 2023 but I do believe that it’s going to continue into next year and I’m going to share with you that one thing that I think the entire market relies upon I’m going to show you some dates that I have my eye on so that you can have somewhat of an idea of where I think we could potentially reach the the peak price and also this is why you guys have heard in my previous videos we’re heading into another slide here if you look at from peak to peak in 2011.
It’s 31 right then we went to in 2014 we went to 1100 in 2017 we went to 1900 so we had a 35 x from peak to peak then we had a 17x which that growth got cut in about half and if that were to happen again and we cut the growth in half we’d be about a 9x from the previous all-time high of right around 20 grand which would put us right around 175 to 180k per bitcoin now if you guys have been watching my channel I’ve been talking about this I don’t know for over over a year now since we discovered this quite a while ago.
So that’s why I believe just studying previous growth patterns within bitcoin there is a lot of diminishing returns as more capital flows into an asset class the return will start to level off and that’s what you know it looks like we’re starting to see right so you could there’s no doubt in my mind that the bitcoin cycle is expanding and I want to show you actually one more illustration before we I mean first and foremost the total crypto market cap is bouncing off of its previous resistance back when we had an all-time high earlier this year which is usually a great sign right.
Previous resistance turns into support so we’ll see where we go but I want to show you just what it looks like on a longer peak-to-peak and analysis where we look at and you can visually see on another chart that’s not you know biased from just looking at what we do right you can see that from peak to peak again this is absolutely expanding right.
I mean look from peak to peak look how short this was then we look at this amount of length of time and now we’re even past that length of time now right from from almost exceeding this amount of days within from peak to peak and now we’re likely going to expand out even longer it looks like we’re going to continue this bull market but it’s going to take longer than people believe and one thing I want to make sure that you have your eye on is also considering what is going on with global financial markets.
So what’s been really really interesting has been to see this is the s p 500 right to see how bitcoin has kind of been behaving compared to you know the s p right so on September 9th this is when like the ever grand news came out where evergrand was missing payments that’s that massive Chinese company right the real estate company that took out 300 billion dollars of debt and they built these things called ghost cities right so there’s a huge debt bubble in china right now.
Specifically in real estate because they over levered they literally built these entire cities that has no one living in them they just build all these massive buildings like an entire city I’m talking about that they’re pretty much no one lives in so there’s no cash flow so now they can’t pay back the debt and this was the big scare right back on you know September right around September 7th and then we really headed into it like September 9th and 10th and then if we look at what bitcoin did around that same period of time.
Well let’s look September 7th and September 9th this is when we had this dramatic fall with bitcoin right where he came down about like I think it was like 20 I mean let’s see what the actual yeah down 24 right in a matter of few days because of that information that you know from the stock market where we had that big correction because what you need to understand is intelligent investors they understand everything about what’s going on right in in macro financial markets and they understand that if you know more stable more safe investments like the stock market the bond market right.
If those start to sell off well and there’s a lot of fear then what’s going to happen to a really speculative investment class like cryptocurrency that would sell off dramatically and we saw this happen and we’ve never been through a true recession during a bull market or during the entire life cycle of cryptocurrency we’ve never actually been through a real recession in the stock market because again the last recession was 2008 bitcoin came out in 2009.
So we’ve never actually been through an entire true recession the only thing we’ve had to really compare was the pandemic where you know the stock market crashed we had a huge liquidity crisis and bitcoin went down 50 percent in one day right so that’s the only thing that we can really compare it to and we just recently had that that new news about you know the new virus coming out and blah blah blah right and we had a nice correction in in the stock market.
I think it was right on thanksgiving and look what happened again with bitcoin same thing we had a correction that took us all the way down we had a nice you know a another like about 20 correction because of that news 22 21 correction right so I really do believe that first of all I think we’re on track with the cryptocurrency market I think obviously that the cycles are expanding so obviously we’re going to expand into next year just based on previous data which again we just went over multiple scenarios where I showed you that the the peaks the having cycles from low to the then the peak is all that is expanding.
So the cycles are starting to mature so I do believe we are on track I do believe that we’re on track to to to likely end the cycle somewhere in like q2 of next year okay and I’ll also show you what I have my eye on which is the debt payments for evergrand right they have a 2.1 billion dollar debt payment that is due on march 23rd okay.
2.1 billion dollars so I want to have my eye on this to to ensure that if they do start to default on these payments they could potentially go bankrupt somewhere around this because they have about 3.6 billion dollars due in a matter of two months less than two months they have you know 3.6 billion right so I’m keeping my eye on this because again that’s what caused this massive scare in the stock market right here which you can see we had we just completely ripped right after we had this v-shaped recovery.
We completely ripped and then evergreen was a really big you know scare for quite a lot of people so I want to have my and that was kind of a relatively small payment relative to what we’re even looking at right now right so that’s kind of the dates that I’m looking at is April and in March because they have over three billion in payments due and again I think the entire crypto bull market depends on what the stock market does because what you need to understand is cryptocurrency is highly speculative and if there’s a lot of fear in financial markets cryptocurrency will get sold off very very hard all right.
Let me know what you think about this video do you agree with my thesis that the entire cryptocurrency market depends on what the stock market does do you think that the cycles are actually expanding let me know in the comments section below again if you get value we just hopped over 25,000 subscribers.
Thank you guys so much I really really do appreciate the support and attention I know that people’s time is the most valuable asset and I greatly appreciate you spending time with me so go ahead and I hope to see you on this next video and share this with someone that you think will get value this is Jeff signing off.