Bitcoin is down 36 but despite the bloodbath on the charts some of the largest and smartest money has begun accumulating once again so in this video I’m going to share with you that data also share with you my thoughts and also share with you two projects that I think are going to do the absolute best in the first half of 2022 and one of them is already my largest holding and the second one I’m going to make my second or third largest holding so let’s go ahead and jump right into this video.
Now like I was saying some of the smartest money is accumulating what is that the long-term holders so traditionally long-term holders are people that hold bitcoin for over 155 days typically the smartest money in crypto and specifically bitcoin are people that hold bitcoin for over 155 days they’re considered quote unquote long-term holders you can see even if we zoom out over long periods of time they have perfectly timed I wouldn’t say perfectly they’ve sold into price strength so as the price is going up you’ll see a lot of red which means that they’re decreasing the amount of supply that they hold so they did that perfectly back in 2013.
They did it perfectly in 2014 they start to accumulate very very heavily into the bear market you can see a lot of green in here and then all the way through 2017 they sold all the way through strength until we hit 20k we had a nice little dead cat bounce I think it went back up to like right around 17 and then they officially sold off and then they started to accumulate heavily into 2018 and that is exactly what happened this year as well you can see or actually say last year.
Now in 2021 they started to sell into strength all the way up until it was April 6th so almost the exact top they were a few weeks off the top I believe was like right around April 15th and then they’ve started to accumulate very very heavily when we came back to 30k and then they started to sell off once again when we broke to the all-time high at 69k they sold all the way down through this entire dip that we just experienced and now we see some really big green bars here so they have started to accumulate bitcoin once again which is a longer term bullish sign right.
When you start to see when after a lot of green and then you start to see some red that’s actually typically more of a bullish sign a shorter term bullish sign because that means that they have started to sell you can obviously see they don’t time the tops of the market perfectly I mean really no one does but they do a very very good time or job of dollar cost averaging in and dollar cost averaging out that’s likely what your goal should be is the dollar cost average in and out of assets if you’ve seen some of our previous videos.
We like to separate our portfolios into long-term holdings where we never sell we’re either earning interest or that’s on the cold wallet then we have more like midterm things where it’s I call it a cycle swing positions where we’re actually swinging those through an entire cycle so you could accumulate all the way through a bear market even to a bull market and then you’re looking to sell towards the end of the cycle when you’re obviously nearing a a price peak right and then you start to accumulate again.
So that’s one section and then we have a shorter term sections in our portfolio that we play more like swing trade but honestly that’s not necessary for everyone the most people are going to win just from holding long-term positions and buying the dips and then maybe you sell a little bit into the cycles and you don’t have to over complicate a lot of people over complicate it and that’s why they end up losing so what has recently happened as well is like I said some of the largest money has started to accumulate as well but this was almost kind of I don’t know the numbers are a little bit too coincidental because the third largest bitcoin holder actually purchased 456 bitcoin at 46k on bitcoin’s birthday.
So that bitcoin’s birthday is considered the genesis box which is the first block on bitcoin’s blockchain and that 456k or 456 bitcoin was worth 21 million dollars to potentially celebrate the 21 million coins that bitcoin you know will have by year about 2140. I thought that was kind of funny it didn’t perfectly you know buy 21 million but at least it was 21 million celebrating on right on bitcoin’s birthday but either way a lot large money wouldn’t accumulate if they weren’t bullish for it it’s not just something that they’re likely just willing to throw 21 million dollars at just because they think it’s funny if they are wow.
That guy has some balls but this wallet currently holds 120k bitcoin right now which is worth 5.6 billion dollars and they have about three billion dollars in profit over the time period in which they’ve been holding the bitcoin which has it’s been active since February of 2019 so they’ve accumulated a total of 200,000 bitcoin but they did sell or at least send about 80,000 bitcoin outside of the wallet.
So I always like to look at what the you know the large money is doing also because they typically do a decent job at dollar cost averaging in and out and then also looking at what the longer term holders are doing as well and you can see that even on this this is the same chart but in a line chart you can see this this line is starting to creep back upwards as well I don’t do anything until there’s a I don’t worry until there’s a significant change of about 10 which we did not have a 10 change in the line when it started to drag downwards and we’ll see if it starts to move upwards by 10 or more that’s typically a very bullish or a bearish sign depending on which direction it’s going another way to potentially identify the bottoms of sell-offs is to look at futures in open interests and funding rates.
So these are just a form of derivatives futures is just really like if you hear people using leverage on exchanges that’s exactly what they’re doing is they’re essentially borrowing money from the exchange to increase a return on a trade but it could also go against them and they could wipe out their accounts as well so it creates a lot more volatility in the market and this is what we’re looking at is the number of open interest that was in the market just on on bitcoin so you can see the open interest the other day was at 10 billion 800 million which is relatively high.
It’s not definitely not at all time highs you can see we’re at all-time highs we’re at 69k when the ETF came out and then all the way back when we were back at 65k as well but what’s important to look at is okay the open interest is up that’s not you know a scary thing what you also want to look at is the perpetual funding rate which is understanding okay which way are people betting on the market going if you see green right here that means that longs are playing or paying the shorts depending on which how much leverage is put on the market whether it be on the long side or the short side if more people are betting on the long side which means that they’re betting on the price.
Going up they will actually pay a fee to the short sellers to hold their positions okay and that’s what you see in all of this green earlier in 2021 that was the longs playing paying the shorts so there was a ton of long positions okay then you saw once it sold off you saw some red and you had the shorts starting to pay the longs the funding rate then you saw once we reached the bottom at the very end of the summer and we started to move from 30k all the way up to 69k.
You saw a lot of green now it’s been starting to level off and we finally saw some red here that is a positive sign to actually see some red because what happens is usually when we over leverage and there’s too many people betting on the market going up and the spot foundation is not there and the price move too quickly then you start to see a cascade effect and you actually want to wait until there is a significant amount of red and then it starts to balance out again and then you start to build more of a price floor and then open interest will come back up and then you’ll potentially if you’re in a bull market.
You’ll see the funding rate go back up so it is actually a positive sign to see some more red here which just means that more longs were liquidated so it’s starting to slow down the long liquidations if you’re seeing price go down and you’re seeing funding still up by all this green right here that’s kind of a scary sign if you’re betting on the price going up because that means that there’s still a lot of people betting on the price going up and the price is still going down which means that it’s likely still cascading and liquidating people’s positions so typically you want to wait until you start to see some red.
You see some more balance and then the market builds that foundation like I was talking about and then it can go and start to head upwards once again another important thing is like to not even worry about the long-term picture I like to really look at this chart if you can go just type in BLX on trading view and I’m looking on this on a logarithmic chart but you can see at the very tops of the market the next bear market didn’t even come close to the previous tops and even if we did cascade down to 30k.
I really do not see bitcoin going past much past 30k I could see maybe a week or so but to be honest I even if we did not bottom where we’re at right now which I think again as you probably heard in my previous video I think there’s the probabilities and the odds of it actually having a bottom or at least very very close to a bottom even if I was incorrect and we do head down to 30k I really do not see it going much past that I would be incredibly surprised on more of a technical basis like you guys potentially heard if you haven’t go watch some of my previous market updates.
Over the last week we’ve been talking about this accumulation zone and then also we’ve been talking about more importantly the indicators that have shown that bitcoin is likely heading for more more bullish momentum this doesn’t time it on the very day it usually times it over a few weeks and what I’m talking about is a few things so number one we’re actually bringing in one one new indicator the RSI actually is not in here as well but that’s important to look at as well but you’ll see on market cipher when this line is red up here at the top and then we start to head into a green line right.
If you look at where this I know you can’t see my mouse and these green dots right above that this first green dot and then these two green dots you can see the first green dot that turned that red line green okay that turned green all the way when we almost nearly bottomed then we had a little stop-loss hunting where it took out more people and we had a wick lower and we actually created a head and shoulders pattern and then we had two green dots the line was still green that entire time and then bitcoin’s price shot all the way up to 69k okay.
We since had obviously a pullback and that by the way that was 130 increase we then had a pullback we had two green dots very similar to here but they actually reversed you can see the two dots or first one and then two now we have two and then one the line turned green and what we’ve had is if you look even on the MACD as well on back here you start to see bullish divergence because the MACD is up and to the right.
Right now we’re starting to see up and to the right right here as well and the MACD it looks like it has bottomed we are now seeing a higher low on the MACD and then we’ve also seen the green the green line and then three buy signals two very close one a few weeks later and now it is you know potentially last time that happened same amount of green dots same thing on the MACD same thing with the green line and almost the same thing on the RSI as well we had a 130 increase.
So on a technical standpoint, I would not be surprised if we start to trade into this zone for bitcoin that previous resistance did flip into support we had you know one or two weeks a little bit lower but now it looks like we’re gonna start to trade into this zone or at least that’s what I believe is going to happen as we start to trade into the zone and price continues upwards if you also watch the previous market update.
I talked about how the cycle could potentially extend into all the way into 2023 which is you know not something a lot of people maybe want to hear but it actually could be really healthy growth for bitcoin and for cryptocurrency but you know as you’ve probably heard as well I think the x factor is the stock market so if the stock market can continue to sell hold on I think that’s really really important for the price of bitcoin and crypto and also I think that bitcoin has kind of been a barometer for just how markets have been emotionally reacting so when there’s been bad news such as or quote unquote bad news.
It depends on which side you’re on and about the interest rate hikes crypto has sold off way harder in anticipation of more of a bearish sentiment across all of the markets so I’ve just seen you know bitcoin and cryptocurrency especially now be even more related to bad global macro news than ever before because everyone was very very uncertain coming into this year and it now seems like the sentiment is starting to pick up slightly on just the vibe of these you know interest rate hikes and the the money printers are starting to slow down a little bit.
They’re starting to slow down the purchase of financial assets they typically the fed usually prints money they buy bonds that spills over into stocks and it artificially pumps up financial markets and they’ve started to slow that down as well but it feels like the sentiment has started to pick back up onto the bullish side a little bit as we came into the first finish the first week of the year and obviously we see bullish momentum in the stock market this is the SP500.
So anyways I do want to get into my two projects which I think are going to do extremely well this year the first one is phantom it is priced at two dollars and 88 cents if you guys are in some of our private communities you know we have been heavily accumulating this and then we actually sold it in right when it was hitting 280 into three dollars and then started to accumulate it once again so what we do is like I mentioned we separate our portfolios like that and then we wait for certain indicators to tell us that we’re likely heading into a bearish time period and we just set these by limit orders so as you can see this is the phantom chart okay.
We came all the way down low we had really two green dots on market cipher which were just buy signals we came all the way up 133 in about 16 days and then we had a pullback and what we do is we set these buy limit orders that’s what this green box is we set two buy limit orders sometimes three depending on how much cash we’re potentially putting into the market or in a certain position but these are the the prices that we accumulated phantom on and obviously we’re now back into the green which is great.
So that’s typically what we do that’s what we’re doing in our in our shorter term allocation our portfolio is we’ll start to sell into strength on certain positions and then we set by limit orders for certain zones based on previous support and resistance and sometimes Fibonacci’s as well but and also fundamentals too phantom has been showing very very strong fundamentals which I’m really really excited about phantom.
Actually had a a really long period of downward decreases in the transaction on the chain this was about six months ago when it started and then started to bottom pretty recently at the very end of 2021 and I started to hear some involved in like blockchain communities and I talked to developers because we’re actually working with a few developers and we have a few funds so we share alpha with other funds as well and there’s been a lot of growth on phantom like people are extremely excited about phantom, phantom’s ecosystem, phantom scalability, phantom’s development activity and there’s been quite a lot of development activity and now we’re starting to see new highs for phantom’s transaction volume.
So phantom hit a million transactions the other day if you compare that to some other blockchains it blows some other blockchains away you know there’s only a few blockchains that do more than a million transactions in a day and I’m gonna show you one other one here in a second but phantom did a million it came back down to six hundred thousand and now it broke that previous shorter term high and now it’s at 109 sorry 1 million 90,000 transactions a day which is great growth for phantom.
I mean that’s literally a double in the transaction volume because we’re at 500,000 we then broke to a million in a matter of a few days which is exciting and the reason why I care about that is because what happens is that just shows that there’s more development on it the projects that are actually developing on the blockchain have traction because they would be creating transactions on phantom’s blockchain and that all those transactions uses the native coin for a fee on the blockchain.
So as you’ve heard you know eth gas fees are extremely high and people are super annoyed about it that’s exactly what they’re talking about are these gas fees phantom has gas fees as well but it pays in FTM and also it just is important for the ecosystem to expand that just shows like even if you’re investing in any business you want activity you want p you want interest you want adoptability and that’s exactly what is happening and that’s one way that we that we you know analyze blockchains is by transactions and then also by wallets.
So let’s talk about another one this is my largest holding in my all coin positions right now and it has been for some time it was just harmony so first and foremost phantom is only at a seven billion dollar market cap okay you also got to have some perspective on this this has a lot of room to grow okay I actually believe it it deserves to be somewhere in the top 10 to 15 and even if we were you know Maddox in the top it’s number 14.
It’s at a 17 billion market cap that would you know more than double phantom’s price just to get there okay as far as harmony goes this is even further back on the list we’re at a 3.9 billion dollar market cap and it’s number 42 on the rank I think this has a ton of room to grow the chart is extremely bullish you’ll see we started to accumulate again it didn’t even hit our lower buy buy limit target because the price action was so strong.
So this is another major thing I wanted to bring to your attention in this video is when you’re looking at when you have like really big sell-offs it is great to accumulate at really really low prices for some other projects like dots sold off very very hard and I bought some dot because dot’s a very strong project there’s also a lot of development on dot there’s a lot of really large capital and dot a lot of VC backing a lot of big it’s a very respectable project so I was very happy to accumulate in the low 20 region after it you know it sold off more than 50-60 percent.
So that’s great but also what I look for are projects that have really strong fundamentals and they don’t sell off that hard so this is exactly what happened as you saw with bitcoin we had a huge sell-off right we had a you know 34 even more than a 40 sell-off on bitcoin and over that same period of time harmony actually held its price extremely extremely well I mean it it barely it doesn’t even look this is just a blip on the map.
It doesn’t even look like we were in an extremely bearish time so it hit one of our buy limit targets that we set earlier last week and now we’re starting to almost breach we did just break this previous local high we have not breached the previous all-time high but I’m very very confident that that harmony breaks into new all-time highs it does extremely well the first half of this year and this is primarily why I also know a few things about a lot of development on harmony’s blockchain and a lot of really important metaverse projects that have launched on harmony as well and they are doing an extremely great job at something called interoperability which is pretty much.
They’re looking to be the chain that connects all the chains and they are extremely scalable their transaction fees their throughput is very very high their gas fees are extremely low and they are a really really solid project and they’re somewhat of a newer project they’re not extremely new I believe they started in 18 but they are starting to get a lot of traction and they’ve got some big backers finances behind them quite considerably but if we look at their transactions they’re doing 4 million transactions a day 4 million, 3 million, 2.8 million, 2.9 million, 2.9 million, 3.5 million 2.9 2.9 2.6.
So you can see it’s been trending upwards and it’s been trending upwards for I’ve been talking about this for a while I shot an entire video on harmony not too long ago and you’ll see how the transactions have been considerably stepping up and then the number of wallets also has been considerably stepping up we are at just you know right around 500k wallets now.
We are 568,000 wallets that are on harmony’s blockchain and you can also see a ton of new NFTS being minted on the chain there’s just a ton of development on the chain and it’s extremely there’s you can also analyze like the number of holders of certain NFTS and certain tokens and it’s also important to analyze how how many more holders but that you can also look at that based on the wallets as well so harmony just has a ton a ton of activity on it.
Again the market cap is extremely low we’re sitting at 3.9 billion dollars which which is highly undervalued in my opinion and I would not be surprised if we see harmony break to new all-time highs over the next month but anyways I hope you got value from this video if you did I greatly appreciate you hitting the like button and if you have not yet go follow me on other social media channels.
One of them that I actually just recently started is twitter you can see I’ve been talking about harmony actually even much longer much before this post but you can see this is back on October four or October 24th of last year when harmony was at 30 cents and it literally just did a 10x return in about two months and this is when the transactions were just over two million transactions a day and as you just saw now it’s over four million in a matter of you know a few months which is pretty considerable growth as well I think yeah.
I just started my twitter account like six months ago also just bought my my first board ape but I post slightly more timely updates on twitter so I would greatly appreciate you giving me a follow here I’m at 5560 followers and then also on Instagram if you’re not following me yet and that’s where I spend most of my time and provide a lot of valuable insight as well but on much more than just crypto as well okay.
Anyways if you got value from this let me know by hitting the like button if you get consistent value why not hit subscribe and let me know what you think about the overall sentiment in the market I’m always curious to hear what you guys think a lot of people in the crypto space are intelligent people and I’d love to hear what you think about the overall sentiment in the market and if you’re bullish bearish and what you think about phantom and harmony in the comments section below thanks so much see you on this next video.