Long-term holders (smart money) has officially started to sell their bitcoin.

In this video I share why this actually could be a good thing for the price of bitcoin. I also share my thoughts around Apple’s CEO saying he has officially purchased bitcoin.


Bitcoin has officially broke to new all-time highs at 68,500 but the smart money has started to sell now what does that mean for you and I and the rest of the market should we get out of the market well I’m going to talk about exactly what it means and let’s jump into on-chain metrics so I can show you what the data shows us right because it’s usually intelligent to make objective decisions based on data so let’s look historically what has happened.

If you’re not familiar with on-chain metrics this is I believe the most valuable data that you can possibly have because it shows fundamentally what is going on with the supply and demand of bitcoin and obviously bitcoin is very supply and demand driven so let’s go ahead and look back at the history first of all this is bitcoin’s long-term holder net position change right.

So these are people that hold bitcoin for over 155 days this is the smart money okay and I’ll show you why there’s a smart money because all the green here that means that they’re accumulating bitcoin the red here means that they’re selling right that’s the net position change of the amount of bitcoin that the long-term holders hold which again is people who hold for over 155 days and if we look they’ve done a really great job at timing the tops of the markets right so we had a top here, we had another top here in 2013 and 14 and 17.

They sold all the way through then they started to accumulate in the bear market again once again they sold all the way through this top from about 16 or 13 grand all the way up to 65 grand and they started to re-accumulate especially very very heavily when price came down to 34-32,000 and then into 28,000 as well and they have consistently been accumulating since that sell-off from that top when we had the coinbase ipo but yesterday we had our first red mark all right.

This means that the long-term holders have officially changed their positions they’ve sold more bitcoin than they have actually bought which does not mean it’s an extremely bare shrine actually I use it as a bullish sign for bitcoin because if you look historically this this time period was about a month and a half okay then we had about a month and I’m saying a month and a half after we first saw our first glimpse of red we had a month and a half until the top of the market here this was about 30 days.

We had from when we saw the first glimpse of red to the top of the market and then in 2017 we had about seven months from when we saw this last or this first glimpse of red after a small little peak of of of green here and accumulation and if we take that average in right so we have three data points there that are that are pretty pretty consistent that are at least in the last right 10 years right and we take that average that means we have about 3.16 months left until we should potentially reach the top of the market.

Now what I believe this is not the only metric that I look at I believe that the market’s likely to top in the next like two to six months just based on the data that we have and especially what the smart money is doing we love to look at what they’re doing you can also see in another chart that they’ve started to actually decrease their supply of bitcoin as you saw there’s more red here and that’s why you start to see their this that orange line start to curve down that means that they’re decreasing their supply this is not something that I worry about until we see a 10 drop or 10 change in the amount of supply that long-term holders are actually holding.

So when this line goes down by 10 from the top I actually get sent an alert which then I will start to consider to take profit from my positions in bitcoin and cryptocurrency and if you know anything and you probably know from watching our channel we carry we care about bitcoin because it has over 40 of the dominance over the entire market so when bitcoin moves a certain direction oftentimes the other projects move the same direction as bitcoin and oftentimes there’s about a two week lag where bitcoin will top it topped right around in the middle of December.

If we actually go back and look at history right around December 17th was the actual top the all coins topped about January 6th I believe so it’s usually like a two-week lag that the all coins have relative to bitcoin so anyways this is what the smart money is doing they’re starting to take profit is it something to worry about no I think it’s just an idea okay.

Well now we might have about three months or so until we see the top of the market just based on history you have to be open to change that’s what smart investors are able to do is they look at data and they’re also open to new data right so just because what I say now today it could not be true right in four months we could have a top in six months.

We could have a top this data could be different but based on what we’ve seen historically at least this gives us a good idea that we are starting to near that time which is great because if you look at after what the long-term holders do after their supply starts to decrease right what happened to bitcoin the price ripped right so I think this is actually a really really bullish sign for the entire industry now another interesting thing is to look at the opposite so the inverse of this data which is what’s the dumb money doing this.

I actually like this one better I think it’s because these people are absolutely terrible at timing the top of the market so these are people that hold bitcoin for under 155 days and you can see when we reach the top of the market they are literally increasing their supply to the to the maximum so they’re literally buying the tops and selling the bottoms right so as we come through the bear market.

They’re selling selling selling see the the supply decreasing and then as the price goes up they literally time the top absolutely perfectly in 2017 so these are the people that we do not want to replicate but what we can do is we can do the opposite of what they’re doing so what are they doing right now well they are increasing their supply so we’re starting to see fomo and actually a google came out and said that the search trends for bitcoin are at an all-time high or the second all-time high relative to 2017.

So bitcoin and retail or retail starting to fomo into bitcoin because we can also see this in in trends such as search and then also this type usually short term holders are more retail on obviously almost about eight percent of bitcoin is institutions so the vast majority of retail I guess I’m kind of saying dumb retail is what we’re we’re talking about short-term holder retail is what I’m really speaking about and we can see that they are starting to increase the amount of supply of bitcoin that they have which is great right.

If we looked at historically like let’s just go back to 2017 maybe we see this increase right here look how much room we had to grow bitcoin was at 810 before it ran up to 20 grand right that’s a really big deal if we look at back here which is more similar to where we’re at now because in 2013 and 14 we had a monster peak we came back down consolidated for about nine months.

This time I think it was actually closer to six months and then we had obviously a huge rip as you’re seeing here but bitcoin was at so let’s see what price it was at it was at oh we gotta zoom out of the 166 bucks or no yeah 166 bucks and it came all the way up to 808 about a thousand bucks I think it was actually 1100 was it was a peak back in 14.

So honestly this is more of a bullish sign for bitcoin which is very very exciting and some other really great news and I’m going to show you kind of a longer term perspective too to kind of get your mind in the right track but the CEO of apple has officially said that he owns cryptocurrency so he owns bitcoin and Ethereum the problem is is he also rejected the possibility of apple buying cryptocurrency with corporate funds as in you know an investment because he doesn’t think that the shareholders would want exposure to crypto by buying apple’s stock which here’s the thing though guys he the US companies especially honestly any company worldwide because we’re pretty much all on a fiat standard is going to have a major decision because what you need to understand is apple has 240 billion dollars in cash okay.

Google has 160 billion in cash okay Microsoft has a 130 billion in cash all right inflation has obviously become more and more of an issue because if you’ve seen how much we’ve increased we’ve increased m2 money supply by over 40 percent so the total amount of dollars has increased by 40 so these that doesn’t necessarily mean that the dollar is going to decrease in value by 40 but a lot of intelligent people have been talking about well what does this actually mean for our cash.

We’re likely to see inflation of about 15 and the problem is everyone evaluates inflation on the CPI but that’s a heavily like manipulated figure because they can take goods and services out of that basket that they’re measuring the inflation by which by the way is at a almost an all-time high relative to 2008 so we’re likely to see a lot more inflation so I do believe that these companies apple, google, Microsoft.

The companies that have hundreds of billions of dollars are going to have to implement some type of a strategy and the answer would not be bonds the answer would maybe be more equities but if they’re not you know a lot of equities are evaluated price to earnings if the price of earnings isn’t exceeding the growth and rate of inflation then they’re actually going to be losing value so that’s why we saw MicroStrategy start to put billions and billions of dollars into bitcoin..

So I really do believe that yes short term he might be saying no but long term I really do believe that they’re pretty much going to have no option except for to go into an asset with at least a portion of it that’s about 1-6 so the amount of money they have 204 billion dollars in and cash that’s about one-sixth of the market cap of bitcoin which is quite exciting to give you some more of a long-term perspective like I mentioned I said I would do a lot of people are like really worried about where the price of bitcoin at least on twitter.

By the way go follow me on twitter I just started a twitter I don’t know why I haven’t been on twitter I just never liked the platform but now I’m in the crypto community I really love the crypto community on twitter so go follow me on twitter it’s at jeff seckinger4 I’ll put that in the link of this video but you can see from the previous tops right in in June 11 right when we hit a top here and then once again in 14 if you look at the bear market afterwards so from the the previous top after the next cycle into that bear market.

We don’t even come close to where this is where the bottom is right I mean we were if you were to actually perfectly time the top of the market back in 2011 we saw like a 395 percent increase from the top relative to the next bear market right and then if we look at the previous top right from from 2014 to the bottom of 2018 we still had about 165 increase from the previous top right and if that were to happen again the growth you can see that the growth is definitely you know starting to significantly slow down depending on how high we go.

I think we could see maybe somewhere between like a 50 drop or so which would put us right around about 30k per bitcoin but I think this has more to do with how high we go with bitcoin so anyways I think it’s very very interesting to kind of get this this kind of a perspective of where bitcoin could go what the new bottom could be I personally think the bottom might be about a one trillion dollar market cap but again I think it has more to do with how high we go and I’ll end with this you may have seen this in one of our other videos.

We’re looking at bitcoin on a two week candle so each one of these candles is two weeks long and if you look at when have we actually hit the tops we’re looking at the RSI down here we hit the tops when we come over a 94 on the RSI right so pretty much every single bull market every blow off top that we’ve ever had the RSI has come over a 94 we obviously did not see that back here earlier this year and this is something we’re going to watch very very closely.

We had a great bounce off of the 50 RSI which is very very common to happen and now we’re starting to head higher and we’re very very excited going to watch this very closely to predict that top if you guys have seen previous videos I do believe bitcoin’s going to around 175 180 80k per bitcoin because we had about a 35x here we then cut that growth in half and had about a 17x here and if we once again cut the growth in half once again we would be right around a 9x which would put us right around 180k per bitcoin and I’ll leave you with actually one last thing that we’ve started to do if you’re a part of any of our groups you know.

We took a pretty nice position the other day in Hbar because the technicals and also the fundamentals I’m going to be doing a video about this later this week about Hbar I do believe is going to break out of this triangle and going to do quite well during the rest of the bull market alright if you got value from this video greatly appreciate you hitting the like button we just reached like 23 000 subscribers so that’s pretty exciting if you haven’t subscribed yet I would appreciate the support and I’ll see you here on this next video.

Published On: November 10, 2021 / Categories: How Tos / Tags: , , , , /