Bitcoin just faked everyone out once again. As we have mentioned many times in these bear market rallies, very similar to what we saw in 2018, we see the same type of price movements. We see it trading higher highs, higher lows, big fake out to the downside, and then you see it push higher. Same thing here, big fake out, and once everyone’s calling, “Hey, there’s divergence, hey, this is a sucker’s rally, hey, blah blah blah blah.” When you are in a massive bear market rally after the entire year to the downside, which we have covered time and time again, it literally timed it to the exact day from the top to the bottom. The exact same time frame in 2015, 2018, and now once again in 2023. And we’ve been saying once we have this massive move after that year bear market rallying, you see volume pick up. A lot of technicals do not make sense anymore because these bear market rallies are pretty much like an X Factor where you can pretty much throw out the majority of the TA that you have learned. So, just watch everyone on Twitter get everything wrong this entire rally into March, and then you’ll see that actually dump, and then they will probably delete their account like Michael Berry is. We’ve talked about this previously. These longer cycles, this is Bitcoin all the way back to 2011, okay?
What we look for, there’s, I covered these three indicators that really tell you when you’re actually coming out of the bear market rally. And it’s still not confirmed yet, and I’ll show you some other moving averages here in a second that you can also get confirmation, but I’m looking at the CCI, RSI, and stochastic RSI. So, these three things in a two-week time frame, just looking at Bitcoin. And what I look for is I look for that low in the RSI that’s trading very, very low to the 30. I look for the CCI trading to negative 100, and then I see that these things are starting to trend upward. So, it’s more of like a divergence where price is going sideways and/or down, and this indicator is going up. Same thing with the RSI bottoms, it’s trending upwards, and then same thing with the stochastic, it’s trending upwards. And what I want to see for confirmation of when these rallies occur, you’ll see in 2015, we saw the low actually here, but if this move was actually really big, it faked a ton of people out, and then we came back down to almost close to the bottom of this body of the candle. We didn’t head to new lows, but we did have a massive fake-out, and this was a big, big deal in the moment.
I actually bought Bitcoin back in 2013, and I do remember some of the time frames around this area and what the overall sentiment and what my thought process was. I’m like, “Hey, we’re heading to new lows,” and what do you know, we ripped thousands of percents higher. So what I look for for confirmation is, I want to see the stochastic RSI trading above this range at 80, okay? I also want to see the RSI confirm above the middle line here, which is at 50, and then I want to see the CCI trade above into a positive range, which is really above zero.
Once I see all those things, I do have confirmation that we have 100 percent had the lows in which obviously nothing is ever 100 in trading and investing, but a very, very strong confidence that we were heading out of that bear market low and likely to head into quite an explosive move. So as all three of those things happen there, once again in 2018, you see the same thing. The CCI traded all the way down here, you start to see it trends upwards, you see it in the positive region, you see the RSI come above the 50, and then you see the stochastic above the 80.
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