The stock market is once again selling off after hitting resistance for the fourth time this year. So, the question is: are we heading for another 2008? How is this going to affect cryptocurrency markets? And also, what do Forex markets and the dollar look like going into next year in 2023? Well, in this video, I’m going to cover all that and more. I’m also going to give you a key indicator that I am watching for a potential surprise rally in Bitcoin and crypto that happened very, very similarly in 2018 that is going to catch a lot of people off guard.
So, we did just break down through support. You can see the RSI and stochastic is definitely showing divergence and is agreeing with the trend now, which is now moving to the downside. My personal opinion is I think that we at least come close to a double bottom and then, you know, depending on how the sentiment is going into the end of the year and also the FOMC meetings in the future in CPI projections that can determine whether we are heading for much lower prices or not.
My overall sentiment, I do believe that we’re not going to have a major 2008 collapse in the next six months but I do think that one could come because of all the ripple effects from all the money that we printed, the fastest rate hikes in history, all that stuff. But, I do think it’s going to take a little bit longer than people actually expect. A lot of people jump to conclusions and think everything is going to happen instantly.
I do think that that is actually coming around the corner, but first and foremost, I do think people are going to get surprised with the length of time that it takes for that to happen and also a potential rally that catches a lot of people off guard. If we look at the dollar, we were talking about this really key level actually all the way up here, it officially broke, which made the Euro rally really, really hard. And when we further broke down below that and we’re starting to get the first sign of divergence, so I could totally see the dollar starting to tick upwards a bit and bringing down the Euro and also bringing down stocks a bit more and potentially crypto and then once again dumping into the low 100s, if not into the high 90s, to start 2023, which would be very bullish for assets. So, there’s a few things that aren’t positive right now.
First of all, the dollar is selling off and it’s clearly broken that massive trend that melted all markets for pretty much the entire year this year. We’ve also got the Fed pivoting, so now they’ve decreased their rate hikes down to 50 basis points, and they are sounding pretty dovish and they’re trying to slow down the rate hikes. And we’re starting to see CPI come down at least to where expectations are, so things are actually improving on that aspect.
I will say one negative thing that is not going to help markets is the fact that the Republicans did not win the midterm elections. That was going to bring a lot of certainty to financial markets because it kind of brings, you know, policy, new regulation, new laws coming to a gridlock where, you know, if you have more certainty that these massive changes in laws are not going to be changed, people build conviction, uncertainty in markets and you typically see nice rallies from that. But when there’s uncertainty because we don’t know what laws are going to get passed and we don’t know what’s going to happen, people tend to not be as aggressive with investments and that’s what I think is kind of playing against the bull case in this scenario.
Now, as far as Bitcoin goes, I mean this year has not been an easy year to say the least. Have you been in this industry? You’ve definitely been swimming upstream. It is not easy for the year, into the bear market, but I will say if we were to zoom out, okay, you know, we’ll do that here in a second actually. It brings a lot of clarity. So I’m gonna do that for you. My personal opinion, short term, which is nothing’s financial advice, and I don’t have a crystal ball and I get a fair amount of things wrong. I’m not always right whatsoever. I think it’s very, very high probability we at least trade back down to 16,000.
I’m putting that over like an 80% probability that that happens. I mean, I think it’s about a 50/50 chance that we do head lower. My lower price target is 13k. So right trading in the mid 13,500, that’s personally where I would want to put a lot of, you know, cash to work if you’ve, if I still have, let’s say I’ve got 15% less cash or, 15% cash left in my investment, you know, portfolio specifically in crypto. So I would be putting a significant portion of that to work, like 10 to 12% of that to keep then, you know, maybe 3 to 5% in cash in my crypto portfolio. So that’s my overall perspective if we do head down to 13k. Great, if not, I’m actually okay buying a little bit higher once we have a confirmed trend reversal where we finally are starting to see Bitcoin come out of the dumps of 2022. So this is what we’ve seen long term. I want to show you this in 2018.
So if we see we had a really big sell-off right, which is a typical 80% drawdown in Bitcoin and crypto. It happens all the time, which by the way, if you’re down 80%, it’s really, it, you know, not much to worry about. The thing you should be tracking is hey, is my value in Bitcoin terms going up? As long as you have conviction in Bitcoin and crypto going up and your portfolio is growing in BTC terms into the next cycle, you’re going to be in a really, really good spot. But I really think that people have no context into investing anymore because they get sidetracked on social media. They’re consistently scrolling TikTok and shorts and Instagram posts, so they’ve got they’re trading their mind to be a very short-term thinker and they have trouble, thinking about it for thousands of percent return over four years, which kind of blows my mind. But I think it’s important to have a perspective on how quickly things can turn around, which I’m about to show you, and, how exponentially, exponential the growth is into the next cycle. But typically, we have an 80% drawdown right?
Do you see the RSI come all the way down very close to the 30 here, but definitely below the 50? So the RSI is confirmed to be below the 50. We have the stochastic all the way down below the 20, okay? And it’s confirmed the stochastic is staying below the 20 and then it pops its head out, and then we have the MACD in a downtrend that entire year and then we have a cross and where do we have the cross? So we’ve got the stochastic that pokes its head outside of the 20 and approaches the 50, okay? So that’s number one. We also have the RSI approaching the 50 here as well, okay? Then we have the MACD cross to the upside. So when all three of those things happened, we saw a 300% rally in Bitcoin. And if you don’t believe me, I mean just go do the math on the rally from the low to the high here. It’s like 350% right there, okay? So really big realities that you see at the end of bear markets. It surprises a lot of people.
Now, let’s just go look at where we’re at right now. RSI has been below the 50s since February. Stochastic has been down here for nine months out of the year and now it’s poked its head above finally and the MACD is starting to look like it’s going to cross. So, once we get the RSI closer up to like the mid 40s, stochastic above the 50, I definitely want to see that above the 50, and then the MACD actually crosses, I think that’s a very, I think it lowers the probability that we don’t see that rally coming and you don’t get blindsided once we see all three of those things happen. I think the probability of a big rally increases tremendously and that’s what I’m talking about.
If we don’t trade down to the 13,000 region, I’m okay buying a little bit higher. I’m okay with buying at 20,000. Once I have more conviction that we are going to see that pretty big rally, which could take us to the low 30s to mid 30s and potentially even the low 40s. All right, now I want to give you just one last perspective here on, on really just zooming out and having a long-term approach, because again I think that’s where people, a lot of people lack.
They cannot think long term and I can tell you, if you’re going to be successful in life and in business and investments, the longer term your thinking is, the more successful you’re going to be. If you know anyone who is ultra successful, they think in years and decades – in 40-year increments when they’re planning out things and looking, you know, for certain investments and businesses they’re building. So like, I really, really would suggest to start thinking a little bit, longer term and zooming out like this. Like let’s get some really big clarity here. This is Bitcoin on a one year chart.
All right, we can see the first year: it obviously started at one cent, so there’s nowhere else for it to go but up. So after that first year right, you see three years of the bull market, ridiculous growth, one year of a bear market, three years of a bull market, one year of a bear market, three years of a bull market and now we’re at the one year of a bear market. So after seeing this, I think it’ll bring a lot, a lot of clarity to like how cycles have played out.
Yes, the fundamentals are different this time. They’re always going to be different. There’s never one point in time, whether you’re at a new day in a year where it’s like oh yeah, this day is the exact same day as the previous day. Like there’s always new data, but the best thing to do is to educate yourself and understand how kind of everything fits in and ask yourself, hey, what time frame am I actually investing in? Do I have conviction in what I’m investing in? And if the answer is hey, I’ve got a long-term conviction and I 100% believe that crypto and Bitcoin is going to be at a higher price in the next four years, then maybe it is wise to think about increasing your exposure down here and not selling the bottom and buying the tops like most retail investors do.
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